The Lead Actor categories…

Best Actress

Personal Favorite:  I’m a self professed geek and snob, so who else but Natalie Portman? Seriously though, one of the first DVDs I ever bought was The Professional. There are certain athletes you feel like you grow up with, watching their career from college to retirement; Natalie is one of the actresses I feel like I’ve watched grow up in front of the camera from innocent kid to intelligent, fully developed woman.  And I don’t think it’s remotely a coincidence that that last sentence could be a one sentence pitch of the main character’s arc in Black Swan.

Who Should Win: It’s hard to paraphrase Black Swan without either giving the spoilers away or ruining a great visual film, so just take my word for it that Portman did a great job.

Who Will Win: I just feel like Annette Bening is going to sneak in here.  And she wasn’t bad in The Kids Are All Right. Frankly I liked her performance in Mother and Child a lot more.  It’s just my gut feeling, I wish I could tell you I know something I can’t prove.

Best Actor

Personal Favorite:  James Franco, 127 Hours. I think I covered this when I wrote about the film, but a) it takes something special to keep a film interesting when it’s (literally) you onscreen by yourself and you can’t move for the majority of it, and b) it takes something special to get an audience to buy in that you’re breaking and chopping off your arm when we know it’s coming and we know we’re watching a damn movie!  And James Franco did all of the above in 127 Hours. Nuff said.

Who Should Win: The craftsman in me can’t get over how well Colin Firth nailed all the mental and internalized ins and outs that go with being a stutterer.  And to this point, damn near every voting body recognizes how well he played that role too, so…

Who Will Win: Colin Firth.